"Avatar" took home the top prizes at last week’s Golden Globe Awards. Whether it deserves it or not, expect James Cameron’s epic to lead the field again when Oscar nominations are announced Feb. 2. Here’s a highly educated guess (debatable) on what to expect in the top categories.

Best Picture

In a controversial rule change, the Academy will nominate 10 films in its top category. Five movies are all-but-guaranteed to be there: "Avatar," "The Hurt Locker," "Up in the Air," "Inglourious Basterds" and "Precious."

The rest could be tricky. Pixar should finally make the cut with "Up," and little seen "An Education" has scored in several key precursors. Clint Eastwood is an Academy favorite, so let’s assume "Invictus" makes it too. That leaves two more spots. "Star Trek" and "District 9" deserve to be there, but I say only "Trek" sneaks in.

That leaves "(500) Days of Summer," "The Messenger," "Where the Wild Things Are," "Crazy Heart," "Fantastic Mr. Fox," "A Serious Man" and "The Hangover" for the final slot. I’ll go with my personal favorite of the bunch: "(500) Days of Summer."

Update: 7/10 correct. Nobody saw “The Blind Side” coming. No “(500) Days of Summer.” Blasphemy!

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