Casual moviegoers finally have a reason to watch the Academy Awards ceremony.

When the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences decided to expand its Best Picture category from five nominees to 10, many hoped it would lead to a more diverse and audience-friendly awards show. They got their wish, and it only desecrated the Oscar image a little bit.

The expanded category gives blockbusters “Avatar,” “The Blind Side,” “District 9,””Inglourious Basterds” and “Up” a chance to compete against the smaller, award-friendlier films, “An Education,” “The Hurt Locker,” “Precious,” “A Serious Man” and “Up in the Air.”

Voters should be commended for such solid choices in the first year of this 10-nominee experiment. “Up” becomes only the second animated feature to ever compete for Best Picture, and surprise nominee “District 9” proves that Academy voters are finally beginning to understand the craft of science-fiction. Yeah, yeah, “Avatar” proves that too.

The only real misfit here is “The Blind Side,” a movie with almost no Oscar precursors to its credit. Most of its buzz has circled star Sandra Bullock, who is now the likely frontrunner in the Best Actress category.

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"Avatar" took home the top prizes at last week’s Golden Globe Awards. Whether it deserves it or not, expect James Cameron’s epic to lead the field again when Oscar nominations are announced Feb. 2. Here’s a highly educated guess (debatable) on what to expect in the top categories.

Best Picture

In a controversial rule change, the Academy will nominate 10 films in its top category. Five movies are all-but-guaranteed to be there: "Avatar," "The Hurt Locker," "Up in the Air," "Inglourious Basterds" and "Precious."

The rest could be tricky. Pixar should finally make the cut with "Up," and little seen "An Education" has scored in several key precursors. Clint Eastwood is an Academy favorite, so let’s assume "Invictus" makes it too. That leaves two more spots. "Star Trek" and "District 9" deserve to be there, but I say only "Trek" sneaks in.

That leaves "(500) Days of Summer," "The Messenger," "Where the Wild Things Are," "Crazy Heart," "Fantastic Mr. Fox," "A Serious Man" and "The Hangover" for the final slot. I’ll go with my personal favorite of the bunch: "(500) Days of Summer."

Update: 7/10 correct. Nobody saw “The Blind Side” coming. No “(500) Days of Summer.” Blasphemy!

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