“The Social Network” and “The King’s Speech” will ultimately duke out for the year’s top prize, but there are other nominations and categories to consider.

Here are my predictions, as well as a few long-shot picks that deserve more respect. Official predictions are in bold.

Best Picture
If there were only five nominees, it’d be easy: “The Social Network,” “The King’s Speech,” “The Fighter,” “Inception” and “Black Swan.” They’ve all appeared in pretty much every Oscar precursor (Guild nominations, critics’ lists, etc.). The other good bets: “Toy Story 3,” “True Grit,” and “The Kids Are All Right.” The final two slots will go to one of these three: “Winter’s Bone,” “127 Hours,” and “The Town.” Gut feeling: Ben Affleck’s excellent heist film just misses the cut.

Needs More Respect: Edgar Wright’s brilliant video game epic “Scott Pilgrim vs. the World.” (more…)

Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin host the (something annual) Academy Awards at 5 p.m. Sunday on ABC. It should be a big test for the industry’s most celebrated award show. While some see the 10-nominee Best Picture race as detrimental to the Academy’s reputation as the authority on quality filmmaking, others believe the stuffed category will boost ratings for the fledgling ceremony telecast.

Those are discussions for other days. For now, let’s focus on the big night: Who will win, and perhaps more importantly, who should win. On with the predictions!

Best Picture
The most heated battle of the night comes down to mega-blockbuster “Avatar” and the low-budget war drama “The Hurt Locker.” The two films couldn’t be any more different. One is good, and the other is an overblown rip-off of “Pocahontas” with cool special effects.

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"Avatar" took home the top prizes at last week’s Golden Globe Awards. Whether it deserves it or not, expect James Cameron’s epic to lead the field again when Oscar nominations are announced Feb. 2. Here’s a highly educated guess (debatable) on what to expect in the top categories.

Best Picture

In a controversial rule change, the Academy will nominate 10 films in its top category. Five movies are all-but-guaranteed to be there: "Avatar," "The Hurt Locker," "Up in the Air," "Inglourious Basterds" and "Precious."

The rest could be tricky. Pixar should finally make the cut with "Up," and little seen "An Education" has scored in several key precursors. Clint Eastwood is an Academy favorite, so let’s assume "Invictus" makes it too. That leaves two more spots. "Star Trek" and "District 9" deserve to be there, but I say only "Trek" sneaks in.

That leaves "(500) Days of Summer," "The Messenger," "Where the Wild Things Are," "Crazy Heart," "Fantastic Mr. Fox," "A Serious Man" and "The Hangover" for the final slot. I’ll go with my personal favorite of the bunch: "(500) Days of Summer."

Update: 7/10 correct. Nobody saw “The Blind Side” coming. No “(500) Days of Summer.” Blasphemy!

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